No black box. Here's the whole recipe, and the full formula is on our methodology page.
1
We read the news
Every few hours we collect the latest AI and market headlines and rate how worried each one sounds, from 1 (relaxed) to 10 (alarm bells).
2
We watch the market
Big daily moves in the Nasdaq nudge the score. A sharp drop adds stress; a strong rally takes some away.
3
You get one simple number
It all rolls into a 0–100 Bubble Meter. Low means calm, high means warning signs are piling up. Our editor explains the why every day.
The last 30 days
Each dot is one day's reading. Shaded bands show the four levels.
Calm 0–34
Simmering 35–54
Tense 55–74
Boiling over 75–100
Today: 10030-day high: 10030-day low: 40
The AI bubble in 60 seconds
New here? Start with the basics.
You don't need a finance degree. Here's the whole story in four short paragraphs.
01
What it is
Big Tech is spending hundreds of billions on AI chips and data centers, and AI stock prices assume that spending pays off big. The bubble is the gap between that hope and what AI earns today.
02
Why people worry
Spending is growing faster than revenue, more of it is borrowed, and a handful of AI giants now carry a big chunk of the whole stock market, and many people's retirement savings.
03
Why it might not pop
Unlike many dot-com companies, today's biggest AI spenders make real profits, and businesses are genuinely paying for AI. A slow cool-down is just as possible as a crash.
04
What we're watching
Whether Big Tech trims its AI budgets, how much debt keeps piling up, and whether AI revenue starts catching up. Those signals drive the Bubble Meter.
Partly, yes. AI itself is real and useful, but the prices investors are paying for AI companies assume enormous future profits that haven't shown up yet. When prices run far ahead of profits, and much of the spending is paid for with borrowed money, that's what people mean by a bubble.
What is the AI bubble, in plain English?
Big Tech companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on chips and data centers, betting that AI will pay off. Investors have pushed AI stock prices up on the same bet. The "bubble" is the gap between that excitement and the money AI actually earns today.
Is the AI bubble bursting right now?
Not all at once. Some parts of the market are cooling while others are still hot, so it looks more like a slow leak than a single pop. That's why we track it every day with the Bubble Meter instead of calling a crash on one bad headline.
No one can give you a date, and anyone who does is guessing. What you can watch are the warning signs that came before past tech crashes: spending growing faster than revenue, more borrowing, and big companies cutting back. Our daily analysis follows exactly those signals.
Expect AI-heavy stocks to fall, some startups to fail, and spending on data centers to slow. The technology wouldn't disappear, just like the internet survived the dot-com crash. Unused AI hardware would likely be resold cheaply, which could make AI computers more affordable.
How is the AI bubble different from the dot-com bubble?
The biggest AI spenders today are hugely profitable companies, while many dot-com stars had no profits at all. The risks are the money being borrowed, deals where companies invest in their own customers, and how much of the stock market now depends on a handful of AI names.
